I currently work as a Quantitative Risk Analyst. I completed my PhD in Statistical Science at Duke University in May 2014 under the supervision of Dr. David Banks. My research focuses on statistical inference using Agent Based Models. A copy of my thesis can be found here.

A primary area of interest is using Agent Based Models to simulate the spread of diseases throughout populations and then using traditional statistical emulation methods to infer about parameters of interest and make predictions as to how altering certain conditions would affect the emergent structure in these models.

I recently completed a research project focused on simulation of an illicit drug market in Denver, Colorado. We have developed an agent-based model to represent the market which we have used to analyze market dynamics and assess the effectiveness of interventions on market activity. This project is a joint work with Dr. Georgiy Bobashev at RTI International and is based on the ethnographic research of Dr. Lee Hoffer.

My previous research project focused on examining the spread of HIV through a high-risk community in India. We are developing an accurate model of sexual behavior in this community and intend to use this model to predict how altering attributes such prostitution and condom use will affect the spread of the disease. I am collaborating with Dr. John Schneider in the Department of Health Studies at the University of Chicago and Dr. Sayan Mukerjee in the Department of Statistical Science at Duke University.

View my Duke Statistical Science department website.

View my Duke Forward profile.

Email: danielpheard@gmail.com